A former United States Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, has
warned that Boko Haram terrorists will likely regroup, becoming more
radical, violent and may attack Kano and Lagos states.
The former diplomat noted that the division in the terrorist group might not degrade its ability to launch deadly attacks.
Campbell said, “It should be anticipated that attacks on government
and Western facilities will continue but not necessarily centred in the
North-East. Instead, the two factions are likely to carry out attacks
further afield, in Kano, possibly Lagos, and almost certainly in
Cameroon and Niger. There may well be greater cooperation with the
various criminal networks that are active across the Sahel.
“The paradox is that a splintered Boko Haram with rival leaders may
pose less of a threat to the Nigerian state in the short term but a
greater one to the broader region and to Western individuals and
interests. Up to now, (Abubakar) Shekau’s ties to the Islamic State do
not appear to have been operationally significant, while al-Barnawi’s
link with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb appears to have been limited
to specific operations. That could change in the future.”
According to Campbell, if a faction of Boko Haram should fall under
greater “operational control of Islamic State or AQIM,” there is more
likelihood that it will carry out terrorist attacks beyond Nigeria “or
even the Sahel.”
This, he stated, could pose a direct threat to American interests, which are centred around Lagos and the South-South.
“Kidnapping has been an Ansaru specialty in the past, often in
cooperation with jihadist or criminal groups based elsewhere in the
Sahel. Kidnapping of Westerners, highly lucrative, may also spike with
Ansaru’s re-emergence,” the former ambassador to Nigeria added.
The leadership struggle between Abubakar Shekau and Abu Musab
al-Barnawi, he said, indicated that violent extremism was evolving and
far from being defeated in Nigeria.
“The focus of the struggle against the secular state is moving away
from the occupation of specific bits of territory concentrated in the
isolated North-East towards a more general assault on non-Islamic
institutions and practices. Even if the Nigerian security services are
able to destroy Boko Haram in the short term and kill Shekau and
al-Barnawi, an extremist Islamic movement would likely soon re-emerge.
If the previous pattern persists that each ‘cycle’ is more radical,
violent, and outward looking than its predecessor, there is also a good
chance that it could have even stronger links with jihadist movements
outside Nigeria, especially AQIM and Islamic State,” Campbell said.
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